Betting Against Entrepreneurs & Hoping To Lose

Written By on May 24th, 2011 | Category: Fail | 14 Comments

$150 bet with FoodCircles team in Grand Rapids, MI

As an entrepreneur I love risk, moving fast and taking action. When I come up against a challenge I scheme to overcome it. But as I travel around speaking to entrepreneurs regarding lean startup philosophies, I hear stuff like this.

  • “I’m scared to launch cause I might not be able to handle the demand”
  • “We don’t want to charge because we want to make it easy for businesses to sign up”
  • “We need to add a few more features before we invite anyone to use it.”

Most startups aren’t accountable to anyone but themselves. That’s not always optimal.

My response to these fears and obstacles is some variant of “bullshit”, so I’ve come up with a way to help entrepreneurs overcome them. It involves a short conversation, a calendar, and my wallet. As coined by my friend Trevor, here’s the “Martell Method”.

How I put my money where their fears are

The Martell Method sees me make a ‘bet’ with an entrepreneur:

1) We agree on a metric they want to reach, and I bet they won’t reach it by a certain date
2) I give them the bet money right away
3) If they don’t win they have to repay my seed bet, plus what they owe for losing
4) I’m allowed to use them as a case study in my talks

Note: Only do one bet per event.

This process leave me with a calendar full of “time bombs” that pop up and remind me when I made a bet and it’s time to check in. Here’s how it typically goes down.

We negotiate

I’ll usually ask some open-ended questions like “How much demand do you expect? By when?”, or “What do you think would happen if you launched now, or asked for a financial deposit from the customers you’ve been talking with?”.

Once I figure out some metrics that seem aggressive but not ridiculous, I move onto the next step.

We set terms

The bet is always SMART. Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic & Timely. This means it’s very clear what metric we’ll be using to evaluate if they hit it, and the specific date that things come due.

I tend to keep the dollar value at around $100 bucks. But I may even start at $500 to show them how serious I am. Regardless of where we end up, I usually try and land on a number that’s meaningful.

and quickly grab one of their business cards and outline the details. For most, it means outlining a specific goal with the expectation that they send me something on that date to verify they met it.

I send the money

I PayPal the money on the spot. Some people might find that weird, but I see it as legitimizing my commitment to the agreement, and I think sending the money over solidifies things. Once they accept it, it’s tough to make excuses.

After that it’s a done deal – they can use it, spend it, etc .. but once that date comes due – if they don’t hit their goal, they need to pay up, including the initial deposit.

Time starts ticking

The fun part of this method is I have a calendar full of “time bombs” that pop up and remind me when I made a bet and it’s time to check in. For the most part, the entrepreneurs are very active in tweeting or emailing their progress.

Winning is not really winning

I’d rather lose the money than be right – it’s more about helping them stay accountable to the team and to themselves. The real value is for them is to have someone external that cares if they make progress or not.

Most startups don’t have anyone other than themselves to be accountable too, that’s not always optimal. I know for me, when I took the first dollar from an investor, I felt a deep sense of responsibility to not only return the capital, but to make them money for being an early believer. I’m more concerned about them making returns then myself cause at the end of the day, it’s my decisions that will make or break my startup.

So what do you think about the “Martell Method”? Have you ever done something similar? If so, leave a comment with the back story, love to hear from you.

Comments.

  • http://twitter.com/MelBugai Melissa Bugai

    Ugh!  I missed out!  I would have totally wanted to do that with Booker while you were here. None-the-less though, this is a great idea.  I want to be able to do it someday.

  • http://www.GetDateIdeas.com Will

    Fascinating! 

    When I was in undergrad (and single) I used to do a variant of the bet structure (called “Money game”) you describe, where I’d give my buddy $100 and tell him not to give it back until I approached and chatted up X number of girls before the night was over to kill off any approach anxiety and shyness around girls lol.  I’d be chatting up girls and in conversation for a few minutes each time to get my money BACK and maybe a few numbers and dates for next few weeks… otherwise it would be a very expensive night out. lol.. I can see how the psychology of the “Martell Method”can work :)

  • http://www.flowtown.com Dan Martell

    Will, love it.  Sounds like you were a student of PUA ;)  The concept is the same .. it’s all about lose aversion, and if you do it with someone you respect (advisor, potential investor, etc) then it’s about keeping face with them as well.

    We’ll see how many I can do .. got a few $$$$ to put to work =).

  • http://www.flowtown.com Dan Martell

    Melissa, I’m sure you could find others to take you up on the bet … smart entrepreneurs bet amongst their team.  Last year I lost a bet with @ebloch:twitter and it cost me a trip to NYC to see Eminem & Jay-Z in concert (totally worth it! :) .  See if anyone on your team is willing to test.

  • http://twitter.com/FoodCircles FoodCircles

    Sounds like a most excellent version of http://stikk.com (martell method in online community format).  

  • http://twitter.com/FoodCircles FoodCircles

    Danny, we got the media on that.  Here’s the link: http://vimeo.com/24035608

    It *was* 57min but I busted it down to 32min.  Hope you enjoy the voices.

    Context:
    I casually ask Dan how he approached some restaurant owners in the past (bc that what we do).  He gives me a look, and tells me to get on google and find some numbers for him to cold call then and there.

    First 8 min: Dan makes cold calls – lessons learned
    8th min: Our workflow for introducing tech
    9:30-14:30: Our first cold calls
    14:30-end: Stories of, then persuasion + implementation of the martell method

  • http://www.flowtown.com Dan Martell

    Is it just me or do I sound like a Chipmunk on that audio :) .  Totally forgot you had it recorded – awesome!

  • http://www.GetDateIdeas.com Will

    bahaha! Had no idea you sounded like that south of the border, Dan. ;)

  • http://ixld.com/ Web Strategy

    Actually I do something very similar.
    When I meet someone with a great web idea who wants me to build them a site, I often push their idea back at them as a landing page.

    Here’s how it goes:
    I want to build XYZ complicated site that will have a database and a bunch of moving parts that will cost a lot to develop (They’re version is usually a lot more rosy and has words like “huge market” and “like facebook but for ….”)

    Of course, our engine is critical to their success and since it’s just a matter of pushing a few buttons for me to launch their idea .. I should partner with them.

    The reality of course is that no matter how many templates and modules you have to choose from, it’s still a bunch of work to customize their idea and for me to realistically ‘invest’ in partnering as their technology partner … then we both need to know that they can sell this to the market place either through their existing network or through leveraged connections to that market.

    So … my answer?
    I’ll set you up a landing page and a sales funnel that lets you capture leads, tell your story and ask for a down payment from them to reserve their place in this new wiz bang site.

    The entrepreneur has to sell XYZ amount of pre sale seats before we start to build out their idea.

    The cost ranges based on just how much like facebook (read groupon, yelp, or any other … like that… site they want to emulate). it’s going to cost us to build this.

    Anyway … same idea .. I’ll bet the $2K that it would take you to setup this type of funnel to help you see if you can actually sell what you think you can sell to your market.

    Validate it with some customer deposits and we can build it for you very quickly, especially now that I know you can go out and sell your idea to actual paying customers … I’m now much more interested in having you as a joint venture partner.

  • http://www.flowtown.com Dan Martell

    I love that and more companies should adopt your approach .. it’s healthy for the entrepreneur and for you. Smart move.

    Thx for outlining your personal experience – much appreciated.

  • http://www.flowtown.com Dan Martell

    I finally hit puberty ;)

  • http://market-by-numbers.com/2011/06/fire-yourself/ Fire Yourself | Market By Numbers

    [...] of telling you why he thinks you’re not fundable. You need advisors like Dan Martell, who challenge whether you got the stuff, or Patrick Vlaskovits, who will kick your ass because you’re [...]

  • http://startupnorth.ca/2011/08/03/lowered-expectations/ » Lowered Expectations | StartupNorth

    [...] easy, prove me wrong and go do it. Maybe I’ll start a StartupNorth Fund, that all it does is bet against entrepreneurs. If you loose the bet you owe me a token amount of money, $100-500. If you win we’d invest in [...]

  • http://twitter.com/agoole frank

    What better way to bet against yourself than investing your own time and money in your idea? 150$ is a small bet compared to all the late nights I’ve put into projects and ideas.

    Its still a fantastic validation and motivation of my work and ideas if someone were to put up 150$ against me. I’d make sure they’d lose.